Saturday, March 06, 2010

Oscar Predictions Updated

Here is an updated analysis of the Oscar predictions, run on March 2nd, 2010. Again, sources being used were the collective mind of movie enthusiasts on IMDb.com and movie fans from all around the world represented by bloggers and Web masters. The Internet Movie Database (IMDb) was analyzed using a specialized version of sentiment retrieval with an adapted bag-of-words. Web and blog buzz values come from Cooltrend. Tapping the thoughts of this swarm delivered the following update to our older analysis:

While IMDb users have two clear favorites, Hurt Locker and Avatar, the Web seems to favor Hurt Locker. Bloggers are seeing 500 Days of Summer in front right now, but this might change since the blogosphere tends to be relatively volatile in opinion trends. So, in sum we would expect Avatar to have the best chances on winning best picture, followed by Hurt Locker.

Directors – here it is again a head-to-head race between Kathryn Bigelow (Hurt Locker) and James Cameron (Avatar). They seem to be tightly correlated with the best picture results and this is probably not too surprising. Interestingly the Web sees James Cameron while Kathryn Bigelow is really not that popular. Blogosphere is undecided in this category, Mr. Cameron is clearly behind in the buzz though.

The surprise nomination of Sandra Bullock for the best actress award caught us last time we made the prediction – including her this time shows that she still is behind IMDb’s favorite Meryl Streep. Looking at actors the following picture rises:

Again IMDb decided on a clear favorite and it is Jeff Bridges. While Jeremy Renner and Colin Firth certainly receive some attention in discussion they are both only half as popular in the forums as Jeff Bridges is.

In summary we now give our final prediction, with a primary (the most likely winner) and a secondary choice, based on the collective mind of the Internet’s movie swarm:

It is really a close decision in best picture and director, but considering the combined Web, Blog, and IMDb metrics there is a slight preference for the movie Avatar to be this year’s best picture winner – Hurt Locker is very close though. Director category discussion sees Kathryn Bigelow receiving the award while James Cameron is put second here. In actors it looks like Jeff Bridges pretty much made the race, however in actresses it is not completely clear yet who will cross the finish line first – though Meryl Streep has a slight advantage. Let us look back at this once the Awards have been given out!

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