Monday, August 11, 2008

What is more accurate - polls or the Wisdom of the Web?

Polls about US Presidential elections are notoriously inaccurate - that's what Swiss newspaper NZZ (Neue Zuercher Zeitung) says in an article in yesterday's issue. While Barack Obama is still leading his competitor John McCain in the polls by 3 to 6 percentage points, this is far less than the 15 points with which the Democrats lead the Republicans in the senatorial elections.
According to many analysts, one hidden reason for the low-digit lead of Barack is the issue of race. This is an issue that Americans are afraid to admit to pollsters. This is why they lie to the pollster, similarly to how they lied when asked about going to church, doing sport, and drinking alcohol.
When asked in person about whether they'd go to church regularly, 56% answered yes. When asked anonymously, it only were 25%. When personally asked if they did sports regularly, 58% claimed they did. When asked anonymously, this number dropped to 35%. When asked about drinking alcohol regularly, anonymous answers resulted in 53% of people regularly consuming alcohol, personally asked, only 39% admitted to drinking regularly.

This leads one to wonder if people are not telling the truth about planning to vote for a black president? Using our coolhunting tool Condorview, I today checked what the Wisdom of the Web predicts:

It does not look good for Barack Obama, at least on the Web. Who is telling the truth - the Web or the polls? At the latest, we will know after the elections.

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