Predicting the Iranian Presidential Elections?
Recently I was asked if I could predict the outcome of the Iranian Presidential elections on June 12, 2009, based on what people are saying on Blogs and the Web about the candidates. Unfortunately this is a much harder task than predicting the US Presidential elections, or the Zurich Mayoral elections, as our system is not set up to parse and rank Farsi Web sites. Nevertheless, I was curious what I would find out. I took the leading candidates from the Wikipedia page . They are Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current incumbent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who is running as an independent, and Mehdi Karroubi. There is a whole list of other potential candidates listed on Wikipedia, which I ignored for my tests. I included Mohammad Khatami, former President of Iran, who has endorsed Mousavi. Below is the Condor/CoolTrend picture of what the English Web said for the last four days: Mehdi Karoubi leads the Web Buzz in the US/English Web. In the US/English Blogosphere, the picture is different: Current in...